United States Senate elections - November 2010.

How will Barak Obama fare?

In what can only be described as a massive repudiation of the Bush presidency, in November 2008 Barak Obama and the Democrats swept into power with huge gains in both the Senate and Congress. Does the same fate as George W Bush await the Obama presidency in 2012, and what will the 2010 Senate elections tell us about his second term prospects?

Barak Obama being sworn in as the 44th President of the United States of America.

Hilary Clinton. Will she run for the Democratic nomination in 2012?

Most democratic elections are a judgement on the leading politician, and uniquely (on this occasion) on his Secretary of State.

1. Barack Obama was born in Hawaii on August 4th 1961. He's a Leo, Moon in Taurus, born in the Chinese Year of the Yin Metal Ox. As a Leo he's a King, and like a King he does not much care for public opinion. He's above all that. He will concentrate on the issues for which he entered politics in the first place and will pursue those plans with dogged determination. He's a clever man, but not a good PR politician, and his room for manoeuvre is limited. So his popularity is bound to decline, particularly if faced with tough financial decisions which will incur the wrath of many former supporters.

2. Hilary Clinton was born October 26th, 1947 in Chicago – a Scorpio, Moon in Pisces, born in the Chinese Year of the Yin Fire Pig (or Boar). With this combination Hilary Clinton will have felt herself slighted and let down by the Democratic Party when Obama won the nomination. But it's also a vengeful combination, and no-one should be under any doubt that her sights are firmly set on getting the Democrat nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election. For the moment that means being a good Secretary of State, but in early 2011 she will start to distance herself from the Obama administration, and is highly likely to resign on some manufactured pretext - probably on the way the economy is being handled.

Given the fragility of the USA economy, and the measures needed to put it right, Obama's patient pursuit of Democrat policies will come to be seen as the stubborn refusal to adopt sensible Republican measures and in 2011 his popularity rating will plummet depths unknown in American Presidential history.

In November 2010 the Republican Party will make significant gains in the Senate, further restricting Obama's freedom of action. But it will make little difference to the economy. Ben Bernancke (helicopter Ben) may scatter more money from his printing press, but to no avail. And in 2012 Obama will be the fall guy, and a one-term President. Hilary Clinton will secure the Democrat nomination, but this site will wait to find out the identity of Republican hopefuls before making our prediction for the 2012 result.